Galaxy Digital: The bear market for Bitcoin ended in June 2026

Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, Alex Thorn, believes that Bitcoin may have ended its bear market and moved into an accumulation phase. In his view, this is indicated by technical indicators, the behavior of long-term holders, and changes in institutional investors' positions. However, macroeconomic and technological risks remain.

Technical Indicators

In June 2026, Bitcoin held near the 200-week moving average and then returned above the 50-week moving average, under which it had been for 44 weeks. The maximum drop from the historical peak was about 53% compared to 77–93% in previous bear cycles. The MVRV is 1.10, the average purchase price of current holders is $74,811, and the SOPR is 1.009, indicating that coins are being sold at approximately the purchase price. Long-term holder activity has decreased: in 2024, they sold about 67,000 BTC per month, in 2026 – 34,000 BTC.

Institutional Positions

On CME futures, the net long position of institutional investors decreased from 43,300 to 18,400 BTC, shorts from 71,400 to 30,600 BTC. Open interest fell by 51%, and the yield of arbitrage strategies dropped from 7.9% to 4.8%. Spot Bitcoin ETF holdings decreased from 355,000 to 307,000 BTC: nine major institutions reduced positions by 68,000 BTC, although other participants continued to buy. The outflow from funds relative to the peak was about 11%, and after the June low, approximately 87,000 BTC flowed into ETFs. According to the author, the reduction in positions does not necessarily indicate a loss of interest from all institutional investors.

Fundamental Factors

Galaxy Digital points to the growth of the US national debt to $40.44 trillion, a budget deficit of $1.99 trillion, and interest expenses of $1.28 trillion. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is 5.31%, the Fed rate is 3.75–4%, and inflation is 3.7%. Pressure is also created by AI development: debt financing of infrastructure in 2026 could reach $570 billion, and the total capital requirement by 2028 is $1.5 trillion.

Interest in Bitcoin has weakened amid stablecoins and tokenization: their supply increased by 129% to $304 billion, and search interest in Bitcoin is low. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 5 points in February and 15 at the June low, with a peak of 71 in October 2025. Since the June low, Bitcoin has risen by 39%.

Risks

The forecast will require revision if Bitcoin consolidates below the 50-week average at $76,540 and does not return above it within a month; if ETF holdings fall below 1.22 million BTC (the level on July 13); if a quantum threat materializes – about 7.1 million BTC (35.4% of supply) are on addresses with open public keys, although more than 500,000 physical qubits are needed for a hack, and Google's chip has only 105. Protective initiatives include BIP-360, Galaxy funding of $5 million, and the Bitcoin Security Consortium at $15 million. Deterioration of liquidity or financial consolidation will also reduce the attractiveness of risky assets.

Thorn considers current levels potentially attractive for investors expecting growth and allows for a return to $125,000 with continued support, demand stabilization, and the absence of new macro shocks.