JPMorgan Estimates Bitcoin's Long-Term Yield at 10% Annually

JPMorgan Asset Management has introduced a long-term forecast for Bitcoin (BTC) returns in its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report for 2027. In the base scenario, the company estimated the average annual compound return of the cryptocurrency at 10% over a 10–15 year horizon. The expected annual volatility is 55%.

The report was published on October 19, 2026. In early November, the asset management company Grayscale drew attention to its conclusions again, analyzing the potential of using Bitcoin in investment portfolios.

JPMorgan's forecast suggests a higher BTC return compared to several traditional assets. For stocks of major American companies, the expected figure is 7.5% per year, and for gold, 5.5%. However, Bitcoin is characterized by significantly higher volatility, which can substantially affect actual investment results.

The 10% figure reflects a model average annual compound growth rate, not a promise of consistent returns every year. It is based on long-term assumptions about market development and may be revised as economic conditions change.

Why JPMorgan cautiously assesses diversification

Analysts paid particular attention to the correlation of Bitcoin with traditional financial instruments. According to Grayscale's assessment based on JPMorgan's data, the correlation coefficient of BTC with stocks of large American companies is about 0.33.

Relatively low correlation can create prerequisites for portfolio diversification, as assets do not always move in the same direction. However, this indicator does not guarantee risk reduction, especially considering the significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's price.

JPMorgan itself remains cautious. The company did not include BTC in the main covariance matrices used for modeling relationships between asset classes. Instead, a separate, more limited matrix was prepared for the cryptocurrency, allowing it to be compared with some traditional instruments.

The main reason for this decision is the instability of correlations and high volatility. During periods of market stress, the relationship between Bitcoin and stocks can change, complicating the assessment of its long-term impact on portfolio risk.

Thus, the inclusion of BTC in JPMorgan's forecast expands the range of analyzed assets but does not imply a recommendation to allocate a specific portion of capital to the cryptocurrency. The possibility of its use in strategic portfolios remains a subject of further evaluation.