Musk: By 2030, robots will consume more DRAM than anything else on the planet

The global memory shortage has lasted about a year and has already led to a noticeable increase in the cost of components for personal computers. The main reason is considered to be the insatiable demand from artificial intelligence data centers. The market may normalize if the hype subsides or production catches up with demand.

Musk's Statement

Concerns were raised by Elon Musk, head of Tesla and SpaceX. He stated that "the memory needs of robots will surpass all other needs on Earth." The remark appeared on X in response to a publication featuring a Counterpoint study, which Musk effectively defended.

What Counterpoint Says

According to Counterpoint, by 2030, humanoid robots will require 20 times more DRAM than today. P Equity Research published a chart from this report. The current 8,300 Tbit needed for the "brains of humanoid robots" will grow to 172,000 Tbit. There have already been forecasts that memory supply will lag behind demand until 2030 and beyond. The twentyfold increase in demand from robots looks like an additional burden on the market, which will keep component prices high.

What the Numbers Say

However, the numbers tell a different story. Global DRAM production capacity is estimated at about 40 EB. One exabyte equals 1,000,000 TB, or 8,000,000 Tbit, meaning 40 EB amounts to 320,000,000 Tbit. Counterpoint's forecast of 172,000 Tbit means that robots will occupy about 0.05% of current global capacity. This is an insignificant share compared to how much memory AI currently consumes and how much manufacturers produce. By 2030, with increased capacity, the share will become even smaller. However, these are the figures Musk refuted. Humanoid robots could significantly impact the shortage only in one case– if AI data centers actually moved to space. For now, the situation in the memory market still depends on the fate of the AI boom itself.