Despite growing concerns among consumers, CEOs of consumer and retail companies anticipate a 4-7% increase in sales for the 2026 holiday season. According to AlixPartners, 57% of Americans believe their financial situation has worsened compared to last year. Nevertheless, consumers continue to spend money—they know they need to cut their budgets due to current events, but they respond to store offers, aiming to make the most of every dollar. This paradox is explained by a combination of relatively low unemployment, negative news coverage, and discounts from retailers.
Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos noted: "What we see in this economy is that customers across all income levels are experiencing some stress, especially due to persistent inflation." The trend is also observed in buyer behavior: households with incomes of $100,000 and above are choosing Dollar General, moving away from competitors like Walmart. Meanwhile, customers with incomes of $45,000 a year and below visit stores more often but buy less per visit, stocking up on essentials when they have cash.
Macy’s CEO Tony Spring said he is trying to cope with cautious shoppers by continuing to invest in stores and improving the product range. This way, the company has been able to increase operational flexibility, making it easier to replace items that do not sell. In contrast, Dollar General has expanded its range of $1 items to attract bargain-seeking shoppers. Spring also added: "There is no straight line if you can't tell me there won't be inflation increases." According to Boot Barn CEO John Hazen, "The biggest question concerning CEOs is how to manage everything going on: diesel prices, oil, war, interest rates, the Fed." Retailers continue to adapt to market uncertainty but, as seen, are seeking more stable conditions for operation.
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