Prediction Markets Reach Record $188 Billion in a Year

The trading volume in prediction markets reached a record $188 billion in the third quarter of 2026. This figure grew by nearly 70% quarter-over-quarter and 21 times year-over-year. Analysts from CryptoRank rely on their own data and statistics from Artemis. The turnover continues to grow without stopping: in the fourth quarter of 2025, it was $43.8 billion, in the first quarter of 2026 – $80 billion, in the second – $111 billion.

The American platform Kalshi made a significant contribution to the record. According to CryptoRank, sports contracts accounted for about 40% of its turnover in the third quarter. Kalshi's trading volume more than doubled over three months, while Polymarket's remained almost unchanged. Prediction markets are platforms where people bet on the outcomes of future events. A bet is structured as a contract with a “yes” or “no” answer: if you guess correctly, you earn $1 per contract; if not, you lose your investment. The price of the contract always ranges between 0 and $1, and the higher it is, the more likely the event is considered by the market. The two main platforms are structured differently. Polymarket operates on a blockchain with settlements in stablecoins and is available worldwide. Kalshi is a regulated exchange in the U.S. with settlements in dollars, which has opened the door to the American audience. Traditional companies have also entered the segment: CME and Coinbase.

The valuation of the leader is rising alongside the turnover. According to Reuters, Kalshi is negotiating to raise about $1 billion at a valuation of nearly $40 billion. Analysts at Sacra estimated the company's annual revenue for June at $3.5 billion, meaning Kalshi could be worth approximately 11 times its revenue. Competitor Polymarket is also vying for $1 billion in investments. Robinhood is developing this direction but sees the future not in sports betting: the company's CEO Vlad Tenev expects that sports contracts will become a smaller part of the business in a few years.