The S&P 500 Bull Market Celebrates Its Fourth Birthday

The S&P 500 bull market celebrates its fourth anniversary on Monday: since the October 2022 low, the index has risen by 119% to a record high. Six past rallies continued to grow even after the fourth anniversary, but four bear markets later pushed the index below its 'birthday' level.

However, the current rally almost ended in 2025: at the close, the index fell by 18.9%, not reaching the 20% that is traditionally considered the end of a bull market. On October 6, the index closed at a record 7,818.93 - approximately 119% above the closing of 3,577.03 on October 12, 2022, when the rally began. Daniel Sparks from Motley Fool identified six rallies by Yardeni Research dates: the 1957 rally ended about seven weeks after the fourth anniversary, the 1982 and 2002 rallies lasted up to 5 years, the 2009 rally nearly 11 years, the 1987 rally more than 12. After the fourth anniversary, the 1987 rally grew about fourfold, the 2009 rally more than doubled, while the 1957 and 2002 rallies added about 7% and 16% to their peaks.

Bear markets followed four out of six and pushed the index below the 'birthday' level - just barely in 1974. Those who bought in October 2006 found themselves down by about 50% by the March 2009 low, excluding dividends. According to FactSet, the index is trading at about 26 times last year's earnings - above the 10-year average of 23.6; expected earnings for the next 12 months place it around the average. Sparks notes that the calendar is of little help in predicting the peak, although he expects a bear market. The anniversary itself depends on the method: some investors count the rally from April 2025, when intraday losses exceeded 20%, making it about 18 months old.