On September 15, the price of XRP recorded a one-day decline of 9.82%, dropping from $1.42 to $1.28. The drop was unexpected: since the end of August, the altcoin had repeatedly tested resistance at $1.45. Open interest for XRP decreased from $1.128 billion at the end of August to $871 million at the time of writing – a reduction of 23%, or $257 million, in less than a month. This reduction coincided with a rejection from the $1.50 supply zone, indicating mass closures or liquidations of positions in derivatives.
Throughout September, inflows into spot ETFs for XRP remained positive, with growing funds acquiring more tokens, thus reducing the available supply. Despite institutional demand, the price lagged – partly due to the decline in Bitcoin, as the market priced in rising chances of an interest rate hike. The $1.30 level stood out as a key short-term support, but XRP failed to hold it due to increased selling pressure. Aggressive selling was observed in the futures markets, accompanied by a decline in open interest.
The swing structure of XRP on the daily chart remained bullish: the downward trend from the beginning of the year established a lower high at $1.184, which was broken by the August rally, reversing the structure. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level was tested, and at the time of writing, $1.30 – the former support – was being tested as resistance. Without a strong influx of demand in both spot and futures markets, XRP may continue to retrace to $1.14.
The exchange supply ratio – the share of circulating XRP supply on centralized exchange wallets – decreased from April to July, after which it stabilized around 2.6%. If it continues to fall, investors may view this as a sign of accumulation and a flow of coins into cold storage. However, if the price continues to decline while the ratio rises, the bullish sentiment may falter – it has already suffered from rejection at the key supply zone of $1.50.
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