Bitcoin Completes 62% of Current Halving Period

Bitcoin has completed 62% of its current halving period, coinciding with moments when previous bear markets reached their bottom or were close to it. Today marks 900 days since the halving in April 2024. The BTC price stands at $83,100, approximately 34% below the peak in October 2025 and about 44% above the low in July. Currently, the Bitcoin network is at block 970,344, and the fifth halving will occur at block 1,050,000, with 79,656 blocks remaining. With an average block generation time of every 10 minutes, this indicates April 2028, when the block reward will decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Analysts note that the current cycle may last longer than usual, yet historically, the timing of halvings has remained consistent. For instance, analyst The Rational Root visualized data showing that the 62% threshold aligns with previous halving cycles. For example, in the first cycle, this threshold was reached in early 2015, where BTC hit its bottom that January, and in the third cycle, at the end of 2022, when the price fell to around $15,500 following the FTX collapse. Trader Jesse Olson illustrated on his chart that each peak formed within 550 days, while lows were recorded at 900 days. In the current cycle, BTC reached a record high above $125,000 on October 6, 2025, and today marks 900 days. Olson's chart shows that BTC has now broken out of the descending line drawn from that peak.

However, it's not all straightforward. In 2018, the 62% threshold was reached when BTC hovered around $6,000, and the price then dropped to $3,200 by mid-December, marking the final drop at that stage. Additionally, there is a possibility that after breaking out of the descending line, two out of three previous cycles returned to test these levels. Analysis by Binance Research indicated that comparable rallies often returned to their lows. The current cycle has shown less sharp fluctuations, as evidenced by a 54% drop compared to more than 77% in previous bear markets. If the July low around $57,800 holds, the halving clock suggests that the bear market may end. A break below this level would indicate the possibility of a final drop similar to 2018.