Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if it surpasses the 20-month moving average at $87,165, reports CryptoQuant. The market cycle signal tool indicates that BTC/USD is ready to reclaim this "inflection boundary," lost in December 2025.
As of October 16, 2026, the 20-month SMA stands at $87,165 – this is the central line around which the Bollinger Bands are constructed. They use standard deviation for the upper and lower boundaries: currently, these are $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. The zone between the lower band and the SMA is described as the "accumulation base," and the SMA itself as the "inflection boundary": in December 2025, the price broke through it from top to bottom, marking a point of investor capitulation.
Historically, successful breakouts of this zone from below have led to new cycle highs. "A little over a year after the all-time high of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market completed its 'reset'," summarized CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain. Although Bollinger Bands are not intended for buy or sell signals, the market cycle signal tool indicates that "smart money" takes profit when BTC/USD reaches the upper band. It is now slightly below the last ATH of $126,200 (October 2025), but CryptoQuant sees the next rally above this mark. "While retail fears the current $82,442, considering it the 'top,' the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals shows that we are just warming up," added GugaOnChain.
The 20-month SMA coincides with Bitcoin's opening level in 2026 – $87,490, reinforcing it as resistance. As reported by Cointelegraph, large sell order walls remain in exchange order books.
CryptoQuant maintains overall optimism about the emerging bull market despite macroeconomic pressure. This week, contributor XWIN Research Japan noted that three on-chain indicators provide grounds for "cautious optimism" regarding the return of bullish momentum by the end of October. At the end of August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju officially stated that the bear market is "over" according to the bull-bear market cycle indicator. It is based on composite data from several on-chain profitability metrics: momentum is accelerating, with the current value at 0.186 compared to 0.042 in August.
This material is prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation.
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