CryptoQuant: the share of old Bitcoin coins decreased from 26.98% to 26.59%

The share of Bitcoin's realized capitalization—the value of all coins at the price of their last movement on the network—attributed to coins that haven't moved for 18 months or longer reached 26.98% on September 16, 2026. This is the highest since mid-November 2024; currently, the figure has decreased to 26.59%.

CryptoQuant analyzes data on UTXO age ranges, the size of which corresponds to their contribution to realized capitalization. "The picture has always been the same: when the share of bitcoins held for more than 18 months across the network grows and then starts to decline, a strong growth follows," the platform writes in its blog.

The decrease in activity among long-term investors reflects the desire to maintain exposure to BTC for long-term profit. Their contribution has been growing in a broad upward trend since November 2025, and profit-taking has intensified as BTC/USD fell from the all-time high of $126,200. CryptoQuant notes that the UTXO trend reversal is still modest: the market is seeing only the very beginning of more bullish conditions. "The market has entered a bullish cycle, but we seem to be still in the early stage where such a signal has not even begun to form," the publication states.

Among long-term holders, only the cohort from 18 months to two years is currently at a net loss: their cost base is $93,193, which is above the current price. Since the peak of 2025, Bitcoin has fallen below the cost base of this group, while older cohorts collectively remain in profit. According to CryptoQuant, 2026 became the first bear market where the price remained above the cost base of the 2–3 year cohort.

Previously, Galaxy Digital estimated the maximum drawdown from the all-time high at -53%, calling this bear market the mildest in history, with the volume from the five-year and older cohort at 34,000 BTC per month compared to 67,000 in 2024.