Bitcoin continues to gain strength relative to gold, which may lead to a price increase to $90,000. According to an analysis by Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, there is a significant liquidity shift towards Bitcoin in the current situation. In recent days, the probability of an interest rate hike in October has decreased from 75% to 17%, indicating changing macroeconomic conditions. Despite weakness in the labor market and a decrease in expected inflation (as reported in September, there was a reduction of 60,000 jobs), investors still lean towards 'safe havens,' preventing liquidity from returning to riskier assets.
According to analysts from Kobeissi Letter, the current situation in the bond markets is also concerning: the ten-year yield cannot hold its decline for more than an hour. However, the growing liquidity in Bitcoin could act as a catalyst for its price increase. In the third quarter, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/XAU) rose by more than 37%, marking the best quarterly growth since the 2024 elections. Timmer also notes that as preference for Bitcoin increases, its status as a macro hedge continues to strengthen. 'I still find investing in both gold and Bitcoin interesting, but especially Bitcoin looks attractive at these levels, having broken the $80,000 mark and aiming for $100,000,' he emphasized.
Bitcoin demonstrates low correlation with government bond yields, making it attractive for asset diversification in uncertain conditions. As liquidity accumulates in Bitcoin, a breakout in the BTC/XAU ratio could become an important liquidity marker, providing the necessary support to reach the $90,000 mark. If the current trend continues, significant growth in Bitcoin is possible against the backdrop of its strengthening against gold.
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