CryptoQuant Study: Bitcoin Increased in 7 out of 10 Similar Historical Scenarios

CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym thechessONCHAIN identified ten historical periods where Bitcoin's (BTC) on-chain metrics were most similar to the market state on November 6, 2026. In seven cases, the cryptocurrency's value was higher 90 days later than on the initial date. However, three other episodes ended with declines of 32.8–43.1%, with the maximum drawdown within individual three-month periods reaching 52.3%.

The study was published on November 9 amid the continued decline of the cryptocurrency market. By this time, Bitcoin was trading around $74,600 after falling to $73,708 on the evening of November 8, when quotes reached their lowest level since August. The analysis results show how different the outcomes of similar market conditions can be.

Which on-chain metrics the analyst compared

For the study, the author examined daily Bitcoin data starting from 2012 and selected ten dates most similar to November 6, 2026, based on seven on-chain metrics. The calculations included the distance of the price from the historical maximum, the ratio of market to realized capitalization, and the profitability of holders' operations. The analyst established a minimum interval of 120 days between the selected periods to limit the repetition of similar market situations.

One of the key indicators was the MVRV ratio, which was 1.405 at the time of the study. It is calculated as the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to its realized capitalization, reflecting the value of coins at their last movement prices on the network. A value of 1.405 means that the market valuation of BTC was approximately 40.5% higher than the realized value, but it does not indicate a 40.5% return on the cryptocurrency over the last month.

Additionally, the analyst used the SOPR indicator for short-term holders, averaged over 30 days. Its value was 1.002, indicating that coins were being realized by recent buyers at an average minimal profit, close to breakeven. Together, these metrics help assess the position of market participants but do not by themselves determine the future price direction.

How Bitcoin behaved after ten similar periods

In seven historical cases, Bitcoin ended the following 90 days with growth. The smallest increase was 5.4% after February 2016, and the largest was 132.1% after September 2020. The positive periods also included March and August 2023, March 2020, August 2016, and June 2012.

However, a positive outcome for the three-month period did not mean continuous growth. For example, after March 2020, Bitcoin initially lost about 39% before recovering and ending the 90-day period with a result of +22.8%. For investors, this means that even historically favorable scenarios could be accompanied by significant interim losses.

Three other periods ended with declines. After August 2014, Bitcoin lost 32.8%, after September 2018 – 41%, and after April 2022 – 43.1%. In individual negative scenarios, the maximum drawdown within the 90-day period reached 52.3%, exceeding the final price decline.

Why seven positive results do not mean a 70% probability of growth

The study's author warns that the results cannot be used as a reliable forecast. The ten historical analogs cover only seven different years, so the sample is too small for confident statistical conclusions. Moreover, similar on-chain metrics can occur under significantly different macroeconomic conditions.

For comparison, the analyst provided general Bitcoin statistics since 2012. Over the entire period considered, the BTC price was above the initial level 90 days later in 59.5% of cases. Thus, seven positive results among the ten selected periods do not provide sufficient grounds to consider the probability of growth in the current situation as 70%.

The study allows for both a recovery scenario reminiscent of 2020 and a continued decline similar to 2022. However, historical data does not determine which option will materialize in the next three months.

What affects BTC price after November 6

Additional pressure on the cryptocurrency market was exerted by U.S. macroeconomic data. On November 6, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the creation of 165,000 jobs in October, with economists' forecasts around 59,000–65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, which heightened expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate hike at the December meeting.

Following the report's release, futures market participants assessed the probability of a rate hike in December at approximately 77–78% compared to 67% the day before. These figures reflect market expectations at a specific point in time, not the Federal Reserve's decision. A tighter monetary policy could limit demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, but its actual impact depends on other economic conditions.

The decline in Bitcoin also led to crossing the average acquisition price of coins by short-term holders, which Glassnode estimated at around $75,700 in early November. When BTC is below this level, a significant portion of recently purchased coins may have unrealized losses. This increases the importance of further demand dynamics and the behavior of short-term investors but does not guarantee continued selling.

Thus, the CryptoQuant study shows a wide range of historical outcomes under similar on-chain conditions. Despite the predominance of positive results, the depth of negative scenarios and current macroeconomic risks do not allow for a definitive conclusion about Bitcoin's direction in the next 90 days.